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Friday, August 01, 2008

An Obama mystery: Why can't he get more than a 2-point lead?

There's a flood tide running against Republicans this year -- even Republicans are sick of Republicans ... The mainstream media is biased in favor of Obama so extraordinarily (even you, Fox News?) that it is reporting on its own bias, it's a common joke in editorial cartoons, and is being parodied by foreigners ... McCain is nobody's idea of a young dynamic Republican but much more of a "last man standing" in his party ... The Republicans' own right-wing base and right-wing talk radio don't like McCain and are holding their noses about him ... The economy is largely in the tank, and what goes in the tank is costing $4 a gallon, both always very bad for the standard bearer of the incumbent party ... Obama is hugely out-gunning McCain in campaign fund raising ...

So how to explain things like these...?

Gallup Daily: Race Tied at 44%

Registered voters are evenly split in their support for Obama versus McCain ... a substantial turnaround from earlier this week when Obama held a statistically significant lead coming off his high-profile trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East.

Obama and McCain were closely matched in each of the three nights of interviewing included in today's result, with neither candidate ahead by more than three percentage points. This suggests that the recent surge in voter support for Obama has truly subsided...
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Quinnipiac: Dead Heat in FL, OH, McCain gains in PA.

Sen. John McCain gained on the Democratic front-runner in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State Polls released today.

Florida and Ohio are now too close to call. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac University polls show...

Florida: Obama has 46 percent to McCain's 44 percent, compared to a 47 - 43 percent Obama lead June 18 ... Ohio: Obama has 46 percent to McCain's 44 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent Obama lead least time ... Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 49 - 42 percent, compared to 52 - 40 percent....
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Rasmussen: Obama 45% McCain 43%

July 31, 2008: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that Barack Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. ... McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 55% ....

Other polls have now confirmed what Rasmussen Reports was the first to report on Monday -- that Obama’s Berlin bounce faded as quickly as it came and the Democrat enjoyed no gain from his world tour....
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With everything he has going for him, why can't Obama get over 45%? Why hasn't he already won?