Friday, August 15, 2008

"McCain, Obama Tied at 44%"

So says today's Gallup daily tracking poll. Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 44%-41%, putting the two polls are within the 3% margin-of-error of each other, with both making the race a statistical tie.

It's remarkable that with everything he has going for him Obama can't get a meaningful lead, and can't get above 45%. Sort of like, in spite of all that water rising, Noah can't get his ark off the ground. He'd better, or it'll rise right over him.

With everyone still presuming "Obama to win big" his inability to get a lead hasn't become a news story, yet. But if things stay this way for long enough, it will. Then, if the Republicans get the idea, "Hey, if we were to start trying, we might actually win ...", matters could get interesting.

I've placed links to both daily tracking polls to the left, and to the "real money" betting odds on the election at Intrade and Iowa Electronic Markets as well. These both have Obama as a solid favorite over McCain -- so the people putting up their money at this point are thinking either ahead of or behind the polls. If wish I knew which, I'd place a wager myself. (But keep watching them, arbitrage opportunities sometimes develop.)